01
Frame
What decision are we trying to support?
Target definition, prediction unit, business objective, cost of errors, time horizon.
02
Time
What information is actually available when prediction happens?
Prediction-time availability, future information, operational timing, leakage risk.
03
Split
What does genuinely unseen data mean for this problem?
Random, group or temporal split; train, validation and test roles.
04
Baseline
What simple approach must machine learning beat?
Majority class, mean prediction, a simple heuristic or a logistic-regression baseline.
05
Pipeline
Can preprocessing be reproduced safely?
Imputation, encoding, scaling and transformations fitted on training data only.
06
Model
Which model families are worth comparing?
Do not start with complexity. Compare plausible candidate models.
07
Evaluate
Which errors matter?
Precision, recall, PR-AUC, ROC-AUC, MAE/RMSE and calibration — depending on the problem.
08
Diagnose
Where does the model fail?
Subgroup errors, residual patterns, outliers, data slices, temporal failure.
09
Explain
What can we responsibly say about model behavior?
Feature effects, interpretability, limitations, correlation versus causation.
10
Deliver
Can another application use the exact workflow we evaluated?
Pipeline, artifact, prediction interface, FastAPI, validation, tests.
A score without this evidence is not enough to establish that a machine-learning model is reliable.